Sports Betting: The Quintessential Nature of Data Analysis and Betting Odds – A Case Study – The Sports Mirror – Sports News, Transfers, Scores














Are you interested in learning how to utilise the basic data analysis principles to calculate whether it is worth placing a specific bet? Or, are you an experienced at using calcs to decide which odds to accept and which to leave?

Using data analysis to calculate implied probabilities and winning playouts

The art and science of sports betting has very little to do with guestimates and everything to do with the science of using data analysis to determine whether a bet is worth placing. Therefore, let’s look at the following case study by way of demonstrating how to use statistical analysis to calculate the betting odd’s total payout and the implied probability ratios.

Using data analysis to calculate implied probabilities and winning playouts

At this juncture, it is also essential to note that, because of the increase in the numbers of sports bettors using mobile apps like the Bet365 mobile app, one of the questions that people often ask is whether the betting odds are the same on the website, mobile site, and mobile app. The straightforward answer is: Yes.

Now, let’s consider this scenario:

You wish to bet on an English Premier League football match between Arsenal and Manchester City.

Your sportsbook has offered the following odds, using the Moneyline or American Odds format, on the outcome of this match:

Arsenal +609

Manchester City -322

The first thing to do is to look at the implied probability of each team winning. At the start of this calculation it is important to note that the favourite and underdog are indicated by using the plus and minus sign. The minus sign indicates the favourite and the plus sign indicates the underdog.

Why is this information important?

We can see whom the sportsbook considers the favourite to win by looking at the plus and minus indicators.

It’s not necessary but is probably easier to covert the American odds into decimal odds before calculating the implied probability of an event occurring. The formula is as follows:

If the American odd > 0 then (American odd / 100) + 1.

If the American odd < 0 then (-100 / American odd) +1

Arsenal: (609/100) +1 = 6.09 +1 = 7.1

Manchester City: (-100/322) +1 = 0.31 +1 = 1.3

The next step is to calculate the implied probabilities using the following formula:

The implied probability of an outcome = stake / total payment where the stake = amount wagered.

Arsenal: (1/7.1 x 100) = 14.08%

Manchester City: (1/1.3 x 100) = 76.92%

Therefore, Manchester City is the favourite to win by 76.92% over Arsenal. And, your sportsbook believes that there is an 14.08% of Arsenal causing an upset and beating City.

Now, let’s work out what your total payout will be if you bet £100 on each team to win. The formula to use is:

Total payout = stake x decimal odd number.

Arsenal’s total payout = £100 x 7.1 = £7 10

Manchester City’s total payout = £100 x 1.3 = £130 Therefore, if you bet on Arsenal to win, every £1 you bet, you win 7.1. And, if you bet on City to win, every £1 you bet, you win £1.3.

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